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Moose population study shows it’s unchanged

Moose population study shows it’s unchanged

By Minnesota Department of Natural Resources

Minnesota’s moose population shows signs of stability when comparing this year’s population estimate of 3,710 northeastern Minnesota moose with estimates since 2012.

The 2017 aerial moose survey estimate of 3,710 moose in the northeastern part of the state is statistically unchanged from last year’s estimate of 4,020.

There is inherent uncertainty associated with survey estimates, because researchers will never see and count all the animals being surveyed across the vast landscape. Statistically, the DNR is 90 percent certain the population estimate is between 3,010 and 4,710 moose. 

“At this point, results do not indicate moose are recovering in northeastern Minnesota,” said Glenn DelGiudice, moose project leader. “While it is encouraging to see the decline in the population since 2012 has not been as steep, the apparent stability does not allow us to forecast the direction of the population’s trajectory into the future.”

Researchers continue to examine complex, potential causes of a moose population decline beginning about a decade ago. The decline also suggests recent signs of stability could have resulted from higher calf survival. Infections, parasites and other health issues continue killing moose and predisposing them to being preyed upon by wolves.

The DNR annual moose population estimates can help indicate population trends, but cannot predict future population levels.

Each year the population estimate is compared to 2006 when the state’s highest moose population estimate of 8,840 animals occurred then. Northeastern Minnesota’s moose population currently is estimated to be 58 percent lower than it was in 2006.

Studies have shown adult moose survival has the greatest long-term impact on changes in the size of moose populations. The moose mortality research project shows survival of adult moose remained between 85 and 88 percent from 2014 to 2016, a bit higher than the average of 81 percent during 2002 to 2008, and 81 percent in 2013.

Wolves prey on healthy adult moose and calves, although research data indicates modestly higher calf survival in the past couple of years compared to 2013, which may contribute to apparent recent population stability.

Annual aerial moose surveys have been conducted annually since 1960 in the northeast. Adjustments were made in 2005 to make the survey more accurate and results more comparable.

This year’s survey involved flying 52 survey plots (13 square miles each) distributed across northeastern Minnesota from Jan. 5 to Jan. 14. The Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa and 1854 Treaty Authority contributed funding and provided personnel for the annual moose survey.

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